Supply & Projects
Global Liquefaction Watch: Projects to Track Through 2030
A snapshot of the liquefaction capacity under construction and the projects that will define the late-2020s supply wave.
The global LNG supply picture through 2030 is being decided right now. After a pause in new capacity between 2021 and 2024, a second wave — dominated by the US Gulf Coast, Qatar’s North Field expansion, and growing participation in Canada and Africa — is under construction. Total liquefaction capacity is set to grow roughly 50% by 2030.
Key Projects Under Construction
| Project | Country | Capacity (Mtpa) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Pass | USA | ~18 | Commissioning targeting 2026–27 |
| Plaquemines Phase 1 | USA | ~20 | Trees online in phases |
| Corpus Christi Stage 3 | USA | ~10.8 | Modules coming online |
| North Field East/South | Qatar | ~32 (of 77) | Trains 2026–2030 |
| LNG Canada Phase 1 | Canada | ~14 | First cargoes shipped |
| Greater Tortue Ahmeyim | Mauritania/Senegal | ~2.5 | Ramping |
What I’m Watching
- Golden Pass timing. Every month of delay matters — it’s the single biggest swing factor for Atlantic balance in 2026–27.
- Which US expansion projects actually FID. The pre-FID queue is enormous and cannot all proceed; offtake commitments, financing, and the regulatory backdrop are the gate.
- Qatar’s cost discipline. North Field’s scale is unmatched; slip in its EPC timelines matters for global market loosening in 2028–30.
- African greenfield momentum. Mozambique blocked, Nigeria in development, and Senegal scaling up. Execution risk is high but so is the reward.
Bottom Line
The market faces a structural loosening window around 2027–2028 as Golden Pass, Plaquemines, and North Field East overlap, before post-2030 demand (especially Asia’s absorbing capacity) closes the gap again. Positioning, contracts, and terminal terminal regas buildout strategy in the next two years should assume that gap is coming.